Experts Discuss the Potential Negative Impact of the Grayscale Court Victory on Bitcoin

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THETA

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After losing its case against Grayscale, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces a dilemma on how to handle the influx of Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications. One possible course of action is for the SEC to rescind approval for Bitcoin futures ETFs, thereby leaving no Bitcoin ETF options available to US buyers. While this outcome is unlikely, there is a chance it could happen.

Bitcoin-supportive lawyer Joe Carlasare suggests that the SEC may reverse its prior approval of futures ETFs in response to the Grayscale ruling. He assigns a 20% likelihood to this possibility. Carlasare references an audio excerpt from the SEC’s oral arguments in March, during which an SEC lawyer stated that they may have to reconsider the Bitcoin futures ETFs if the court ruled in Grayscale’s favor.

The recent ruling deemed the SEC “arbitrary and capricious” in its denial of Grayscale’s Bitcoin spot ETF application. The agency’s justifications for approving futures ETFs while denying spot ETFs were deemed unreasonable. If the SEC were to rescind its previous futures ETF approvals, it could claim legal consistency while still blocking spot ETFs.

Crypto lawyer John Deaton, who represented XRP investors in a lawsuit against the SEC, believes that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may take this approach. Gensler is perceived as prioritizing politics over the Market reaction. Business leaders and members of Congress have raised suspicions that the SEC aims to stifle the US crypto industry, hindering regulatory progress.

Patent lawyer Sandy Seth believes there is a “more than 50%” chance of the SEC rescinding futures ETF approvals despite its actions being perceived as rogue. This would require a reversal of their findings that the Bitcoin markets are stable enough to support futures ETFs. Seth argues that if the markets are stable enough for futures ETFs, they should also be stable enough for spot ETFs.

The SEC’s other options include appealing the Grayscale ruling or rejecting the ETF application based on another reason. Alternatively, they could finally allow a spot ETF to be approved.

Overall, the SEC’s decision on how to handle the Bitcoin spot ETF applications is uncertain. While the rescinding of futures ETF approvals is a possibility, it is not the only course of action available to the SEC. The outcome will have significant implications for the US crypto industry..

”altcoins”


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