Ethereum ETF, FOMC Minutes, US Jobs Data and Trade Deficit
The crypto market is gearing up for a week full of major events and data releases that could impact investor sentiment and market movements. Key highlights include the delay in the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs, the implementation of the European Union’s MiCA regulation.
The market is also gearing up for the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes. We’ll also see US employment data and trade deficit figures this week. Each of these events has the potential to impact the volatile crypto market, making it crucial for investors to stay informed.
Ethereum ETF Launch Postponed
The anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs has been delayed once again by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with analysts like Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predicting a release date around July 2. However, the SEC has issued additional comments on the S-1 forms filed by issuers.
The SEC has now pushed the potential launch date back to mid- to late-July, requesting that the forms be resubmitted by July 8. Previously, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler confirmed that the Ethereum ETF approval process was progressing smoothly for all issuers. While the delay has left the Ethereum market in FUD, ETFstore President Nate Geraci noted that the revisions were slight.
It suggested that trading could begin within 14-21 days after resubmission. This delay adds uncertainty to the market, but a successful launch could provide a significant increase in Ethereum price and overall market sentiment. So this week we may see S-1 filings from BlackRock, VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Fidelity and other issuers.
Implementation of MiCA Crypto Rules in the EU
On June 30, the European Union’s Crypto Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA) will come into force. It will introduce one of the first comprehensive regulatory frameworks for crypto trading in a major financial market. However, recent research by Acuiti and Eventus reveals that 91% of affected firms were not prepared for MiCA requirements.
This regulatory implementation is therefore expected to reshape the industry, highlighting the urgent need for companies to accelerate their compliance efforts, and crypto firms that fail to comply could face significant operational and financial consequences.
In the short term, it could potentially lead to disruptions and volatility in markets. But in the long term, MiCA aims to increase market stability and investor protection, which could encourage greater institutional participation in the crypto market.
Also Read: US SEC Postpones Spot Ethereum ETF Launch, Sends Back S-1 Forms
FOMC June Meeting Minutes
On July 3, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 2 p.m. ET. The minutes will also provide insight into the Fed’s decision-making process, particularly on interest rates. The pause in interest rates is also expected to continue, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicating that rate cuts are unlikely before 2025 despite recent cooling inflation data.
Any hint of a hawkish stance could weigh on the crypto market, as higher interest rates often reduce the appeal of risky assets like cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, indicators of long-term rate stability or dovish sentiment could support market sentiment and crypto prices.
US Jobs Data for May and June
US labor market data will be watched closely this week. You’ll see multiple posts that provide a comprehensive view of employment trends:
1. Job Opening Date (July 2): With a forecast of 7,860 million job openings, May data trails April’s 8,059 million. A higher-than-expected number could indicate a strong labor market and potentially lead to concerns about inflationary pressures and more hawkish Fed policies, which could negatively impact the crypto market. Conversely, a lower number could ease these concerns, supporting crypto prices.
2. Employment Report (July 5): The June employment report is expected to show 195,000 new jobs, down from 272,000 in May. A higher number could indicate economic strength but could also raise inflation concerns; A lower figure could affect market sentiment by reducing economic growth expectations.
3. Unemployment Rate (July 5): It is expected to remain steady at 4.0%. Any deviation could affect market perceptions of economic stability and the Fed’s future policy actions.
4. Hourly Rates (July 5): Also to watch is the forecast that annual wage growth will rise 0.3% in June, down from 0.4% in May. Higher wage growth could fuel inflation fears, affect Fed decisions and market dynamics, including crypto.
The Impact of US Trade Deficit Data on Crypto
US trade deficit data for May will be announced on July 3. It increased by 8.7% to $74.6 billion in April. A widening gap could indicate economic difficulties and potentially deter investment in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a narrowing gap could increase investor confidence and positively impact the crypto market.
Fed Chairman Jereme Powell’s Speech in Portugal
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other key Fed officials are scheduled to participate in key discussions at the European Central Bank’s Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal. An event will also be held in India. Powell will join a policy panel at the ECB Forum on July 2.
The panel will discuss monetary policy in the era of transformation. In addition, urgent issues such as inflation trends and the economic effects of geopolitical shocks are expected to be discussed in this panel. On the same day, members of the ECB’s executive board will chair sessions on the economics of inflation and biodiversity in the euro zone.
On July 3, the forum will feature remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde and a panel discussion on the drivers of equilibrium interest rates. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams will also take part.
Following these events, John Williams will give a speech in India on July 5 at 5:30 a.m. ET. He has previously stated that he sees no urgency for a rate cut in the near term, despite cooling inflation data. These speeches and discussions will provide critical insight into the Fed’s outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global economic trends.
Also Read: Will Bitcoin Price Go To $65K Or $55K After US PCE Data? IMF Asks Fed to Postpone Interest Rate Cuts
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