Crypto Analysts Predicts Rising Chances For Approval Of Bitcoin Spot ETF

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SafeMoon

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Jul 10, 2023
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The possibility of approval for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) is increasing, according to experts in the crypto industry. While the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been delaying its decision on these applications, analysts believe that the odds of approval are rising. This optimism is fueled by the recent approval of Ethereum futures ETFs, as it signals the SEC’s growing understanding of the cryptocurrency market and its relationship with traditional financial instruments. Crypto trader and analyst Alex Krüger predicts that a spot Bitcoin ETF has a 70% chance of being approved by the SEC, possibly in January 2024. This approval would provide market participants with more trading opportunities and is projected to bring in $200 billion in capital inflows.

However, the SEC has a cautious approach when it comes to spot-based crypto derivatives that require physical possession of the underlying asset. The regulator prefers derivatives based on futures contracts, citing concerns about price volatility and market manipulation. This approach aligns with the SEC’s mission of investor protection and encouraging financial sector innovation. But the debate within the crypto community centers around the need for flexibility and liquidity provided by spot-based derivatives, while also ensuring user protection in a rapidly changing market with frequent price fluctuations. Striking a balance between innovation and investor protection is crucial for progress in this field.

As of October 4, there are several pending ETF applications awaiting the SEC’s decision. The October 13 deadline is significant for the SEC to appeal the Grayscale ruling, while the SEC is expected to resume discussions and decisions regarding spot-related filings by January 3, 2024. The regulatory body is actively engaging with ETF issuers to thoroughly evaluate the applications and determine if they meet its standards. The October 17 deadline is important for Fidelity, VanEck, and WisdomTree’s ETF applications, although recent indications suggest that a decision on these applications will be deferred until January.

In conclusion, the possibility of approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF is increasing, driven by the SEC’s evolving understanding of the cryptocurrency market. While the regulator remains cautious and prefers futures-based derivatives, there is a growing demand for spot-based derivatives that offer flexibility and liquidity. The pending ETF applications will be carefully evaluated by the SEC to ensure investor protection and encourage innovation in the financial sector. The decision on these applications is expected in the coming months, with significant deadlines in October and potential approvals in January 2024..

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