BTC Nears Bull Cycle Peak, Is the $100K Dream Fading?
Bitcoin (BTC) price is facing significant resistance as it approaches a critical point in the current bull cycle. Moreover, recent indicators suggest that the cycle top may be near, although the price is currently hovering around $67,500. This raises concerns about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching its ambitious $100,000 target by the end of the year.
AVIV Ratio Shows Cycle Top Is Near
Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares the crypto’s active market valuation to its realized valuation, recently turned yellow, signaling potential resistance. This indicates that investors can start distributing their coins.
Historically such signals have preceded cycle tops. With the AVIV Ratio approaching 2 points, concerns are rising, although analysts still think the $100,000 target is possible. Bitcoin’s history of significant price fluctuations reflects its inherent volatility, increasing uncertainty.
Over the years, Bitcoin price has seen dramatic changes. It started at $13 in 2012 and rose to $732 at the end of 2013. It rose from about $1,000 in 2017 to $19,188 in December. The rise continued in 2021; Bitcoin surpassed $60,000 in April and peaked at $64,895 before falling below $20,000 in mid-2022.
In 2023, Bitcoin revived and rose steadily from $16,530 at the beginning of the year to $42,258 at the end of the year. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 led to another rally, pushing prices above $70,000 by March to a high of $73,750. However, recent weeks have seen a decline to $67,500; This suggests that investors are being cautious ahead of major US inflation reports and the Fed’s policy decisions that could affect near-term interest rates.
Also Read: joe Biden Faces Backlash for Accepting Bitcoin and Crypto Donations
Will Bitcoin Price Hit $100,000 This Year?
mudrex CEO Edul Patel remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future despite the AVIV rate indicator. He believes the bull market will continue and the price will likely rise to $100,000 by the end of the year, according to a report by The Economic Times. Additionally, Patel notes the influx of new retail and institutional investors using Spot Bitcoin ETFs to enter the market.
Decreased Bitcoin mining supply due to halving combined with increased demand from ETFs is fueling the current bull run. Additionally, Patel suggests that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September could increase Bitcoin price potential as well as reduce inflation. Low Fed interest rates generally weaken the dollar and increase liquidity, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
Meanwhile, bitget CEO Gracy Chen also predicts Bitcoin’s price recovery potential. He predicts that Bitcoin could remain in the $64,000 to $75,000 range, but a bull market could begin around September. This may be due to the popularity of new asset protocols and memecoins among retail investors.
Additionally, Standard Chartered Bank maintains its bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Its latest reports suggest that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within a year. They find this target reasonable and note that Bitcoin could potentially see a tenfold increase from the bear market bottom to the bull market peak. So it could probably reach $120,000.
On Wednesday, June 12, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recently saw inflows of $100 million, reversing the week’s outflows. Previously, these ETFs had inflows for 19 consecutive days, gaining 57,000 BTC. Additionally, if Bitcoin rises to $71,000, short positions worth $2.6 billion will be liquidated, potentially causing the price to rise.
While Bitcoin’s currency supply is at a three-year low, indicating a supply shortage, the bull cycle may still gain momentum. This makes the $100,000 goal achievable if favorable economic conditions continue. However, the current horizontal movement has led to a “boring” atmosphere in the market.
Also Read: Bitcoin Whales Bought Drops to 3-Year Low With BTC Exchange Supply
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