According to Kevin Kelly, co-founder of Delphi Digital, the crypto Market operates in cycles, and the market is currently in the early stages of a new cycle. Kelly explains that a typical crypto cycle begins with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH), followed by an 80% loss the following year. Afterward, Bitcoin would experience a market recovery over two years before embarking on a bullish run to reach a new ATH.
Kelly points out that these market movements are influenced by factors in the larger macro business cycle. For example, he observes that Bitcoin tends to reach new price peaks around the same time as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, an economic indicator that tracks the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States. As the business cycle shows signs of recovery, network activity levels in Bitcoin also tend to rise.
Based on his Analysis, Kelly suggests that turning points in the business cycle are favorable periods to increase exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin. He predicts that BTC prices may soon start surging as the current downtrend in the ISM heads toward its end.
To support his long-term bullish prediction, Kelly highlights several factors, including the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024. He notes that the last two halvings occurred 18 months after a price decline and seven months before rallying to a new ATH. Based on this historical data, Kelly suggests that Bitcoin could achieve a new ATH by Q4 2024. However, he acknowledges that there are certain risk factors involved, such as the possibility of a modest selling pressure or price consolidation in the near term.
In conclusion, Kelly believes that the crypto market operates in consistent cycles, and based on market evidence, a new cycle is currently underway. He anticipates that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH by Q4 2024, citing factors such as the ISM Index and the Bitcoin Halving event as support for his prediction. However, he cautions that there are risks involved and that market conditions may not unfold exactly as expected.
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Kelly points out that these market movements are influenced by factors in the larger macro business cycle. For example, he observes that Bitcoin tends to reach new price peaks around the same time as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, an economic indicator that tracks the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States. As the business cycle shows signs of recovery, network activity levels in Bitcoin also tend to rise.
Based on his Analysis, Kelly suggests that turning points in the business cycle are favorable periods to increase exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin. He predicts that BTC prices may soon start surging as the current downtrend in the ISM heads toward its end.
To support his long-term bullish prediction, Kelly highlights several factors, including the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024. He notes that the last two halvings occurred 18 months after a price decline and seven months before rallying to a new ATH. Based on this historical data, Kelly suggests that Bitcoin could achieve a new ATH by Q4 2024. However, he acknowledges that there are certain risk factors involved, such as the possibility of a modest selling pressure or price consolidation in the near term.
In conclusion, Kelly believes that the crypto market operates in consistent cycles, and based on market evidence, a new cycle is currently underway. He anticipates that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH by Q4 2024, citing factors such as the ISM Index and the Bitcoin Halving event as support for his prediction. However, he cautions that there are risks involved and that market conditions may not unfold exactly as expected.
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